LVMH has published annual results Thursday soaring, signing a new record with the acquisition of Bulgari and demonstrating once again the resilience of luxury to shocks in the economy .

The world of the sector, including owner of Louis Vuitton, Moet et Chandon champagne and Christian Dior perfumes, has seen its annual sales climb 16% to 23.66 billion euros, slightly above consensus expectations Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S (23.3 billion).

The group's organic growth stood at 14% throughout 2011 and to 12% in the fourth quarter alone. However, it marks a slowdown over the last three months of the year compared to 15% increase recorded in the first nine.

The annual operating income of the group rose 22% to just over five billion euros, 5.26 billion (5.1 billion against expected) and the margin increased by 0 , 7 points to 22%.

After the Swiss Richemont (Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels) and Britain's Burberry, LVMH therefore confirms the good health of an industry that takes advantage of the strong demand in emerging countries, the re , resistance to the U.S. market and tourist flows in Europe.

"The year 2011 was again an excellent year, as was 2010 (…) Unless a major accident and despite the difficulties in Europe, the world is growing and wants more and more products, "said Bernard Arnault, CEO of the group, with a smile of satisfaction.

"We are fortunate to have as emerging markets, but also the United States, who leave and which cause strongly all of our activities, "he said, adding that being" reasonably confident for 2012 ".

'EXCELLENT' YEAR E 2012 EXPECTED FOR VUITTON

He referred to the January sales "consistent" with those of the end of 2011 and predicted for the Louis Vuitton leather goods, the nugget, which accounts for more than half of the profits of the group, an "excellent year 2012." 

With the debt crisis in Europe and slowing U.S. growth, many analysts have revised down their forecasts organic growth of the great names in luxury for 2012.

All divisions of the group have experienced double-digit growth and significantly improved margins last year, with the exception of perfumes and cosmetics (Dior, Givenchy), more affected by the crisis in Europe.

In fashion, leather goods, Louis Vuitton has yet to sign growth "double digit", while the claws Loewe and Celine have completed the year with "beautiful results", wished to clarify Bernard Arnault. 

This division, the most profitable group with Vuitton, saw its operating income surpass the $ 3.0 billion to 3.07 billion euros, with sales reaching 8.7 billion , up 16% at constant rates.

With strong demand and tight supply, the famous monogrammed bags have also benefited from price increases "more significant" than other brands.

In wines and spirits (cognac Hennessy, Dom Perignon champagne, Ruinart and Moet & Chandon), sales increased 10% to $ 3.5 billion and the margin has been 2.5 percentage points to 31% .

Selective distribution (Sephora, DFS) was not unworthy, with a leap of 34% in sales and an improvement of one point margin to 11%. 

But the most growth pole returns to watches and jewelry (TAG Heuer, Zenith and Chaumet), which has more than doubled with the acquisition of Bulgari and has increased sales by 41% ; like basis, for a margin of 13.6%.

NO hegemony HERMÈS

About Hermes, in which LVMH continued to rise (22.3%), while the deluxe saddle has been locking his family holding company capital, Bernard Arnault has reaffirmed that the participation e silent "friendly" and that LVMH had "no desire to dominate." 

Once will not hurt, LVMH has invited in the news at a time when the debate over the "made in France" is raging in France, flying to the rescue, via one of suppliers in leather, the workshop Lejaby lingerie in Yssingeaux (Haute-Loire).

The annual net income reached 3.06 billion euros signing up to 1% but 34% excluding the unrealized gain realized on the outstanding stake in Hermes s in 2010.

With these figures, the group will offer its shareholders a dividend increase of 24% to 2.60 euros.

The title LVMH closed Thursday at 126.40 euros at the Paris Stock Exchange, rising 15.5% since early January, after falling 11.13% in 2011. 

Perceived by analysts as the value most defensive sector, largely due to the brand Louis Vuitton, she exchanged with valuation multiples of about 17 times the beneficial ; profits estimated for 2012, representing a premium of approximately 15% of the industry average off Hermes.

The U.S. government has revised sharply downward its growth in the third quarter. It is 2% annualized, or 0.5 points less than what was announced in October. U.S. President Barack Obama.

The U.S. government said Tuesday it has revised sharply lower growth rate of GDP of the United States in the third quarter. From July to September, the U.S. gross domestic product grew by 2.0% annualized over the previous quarter, said the Commerce Department, reviewing and down 0.5 point first growth estimate published at the end in October. According to their median forecast, analysts expected a confirmation of the first estimate of the ministry.

Fraud within UBS is eerily similar to a tarnished Societe Generale in 2008. The similarities of the two cases in seven points.

Two traders on the same table market

Jerome Kerviel and Kweku Adoboli worked on the same type of position, the Delta One desk. A table where one does not exchange single stocks or bonds but derivatives. The operations are relatively simple and often reserved for novice traders. They also specialize in ETFs (exchange traded funds), financial products that mimic the performance of an index, upward or downward. Easy to use, they can diversify their portfolio by buying such contracts backed by a stock index or industry (eg commodities). The ETF market is booming, the stock reached 300 billion euros in Europe, according to Aurel BGC.Moreover, the two traders were very familiar control procedures. They made a passage through the back office, the administrative body of the bank that controls the regularity of operations, before moving to trading.

Adoboli / Kerviel: profiles of "good friends"

Friends, neighbors, co-workers paint a Kweku Adoboli, 31, "very nice, very polite." Like most young traders of his age, he earned a very good living (300,000 pounds per year) and took the opportunity to do great celebrations in her apartment. Jerome Kerviel was considered "quite normal, no gambler," by his former colleague Valérie Rolland, as shown by his remarks during the trial of former trader. He lived comfortably but did not have an extravagant lifestyle. The financial police who investigated him about a man with "no extravagance of any kind."He earned 48,000 euros per year in 2007, a year before the outbreak of the scandal.

The concealment of large-scale risky operations

For Kerviel, 50 billion euros of positions (or 25,000 times the average risk that a trader takes …), Adoboli for "only" $ 10 billion (7.2 billion euros), "in various futures indices – S & P 500, DAX and EuroStoxx – over the last three months, "the statement said UBS. The principle of hiding two traders was the same. The internal control system did not see anything because the positions were "in our systems offset by fictitious positions on ETF cash settlement futures, allegedly executed by the broker," according to UBS.Clearly, the screens showed the supervisors of the total amount of exposure much lower than was the actual exposure of the two "rogue traders".

Moreover – as Kerviel – the "unauthorized trading" of Kweku Adoboli does date back a long way. The trader UBS would have made some operations since October 2008. In 2005 and 2006, Kerviel had "led" by taking 100 to 150 million euros in positions on the action Solarworld listed in Germany, according to the report of the Inspector General of Societe Generale.

The unwinding told in a hurry to star trader

Upon discovery of the scandal UBS warned regulators in Switzerland and Britain, and launched in parallel to his cell house, "the bronze project" designed to perform the operations of unwinding.This difficult task was assigned to one of the best traders of the bank's derivative, Jason Barron. At Societe Generale, the unwinding took place January 21, 2008 after the discovery of the fraud, by Maxime Kahn, 39, an experienced trader in the bank. Management has told the Financial Markets Authority and the Governor of the Bank of France, but she preferred to keep out of the palace secret. In the recent book "Sarko kill me," Daniel Bouton said he did not call the Elysee Bercy or because "the ability of a cabinet to hold confidential information is very limited in all cases long. It's structural. And if I notify the department, I'll have to deal with the Minister (Christine Lagarde) while I have other things to do. " The Ministry of Finance was informed two days after the first operations of unwinding.A secret which has not failed to Nicolas Sarkozy in a rage before claiming the head of the CEO …

A boss in the hot seat?

The CEO of Societe Generale, Daniel Bouton, was forced to leave office in April 2009, under pressure from President Sarkozy, despite the support of major shareholders and employees. "The goal was to physically pay button" recently said the former CEO in "Sarko kill me." At UBS, the boss seems so far spared even though it is very weak. In an interview with Swiss newspaper Der Sonntag Gruebele Oswald said he was "responsible but not guilty." He even said that when someone decides to act criminal, "you can not do anything." The boss of UBS feels may be spared a major shareholder of the bank.The Swiss weekly NZZ am Sonntag quoted a member of the Board of Directors of UBS who says Oswald Gruebele still has the support of the Singapore investment fund GIC.

A scandal comes at a very wrong time

UBS has revised this weekend losses from fraud of $ 2.3 billion, against 2 billion originally announced. The profit of about one billion Swiss francs which the bank expected the third quarter could turn into a loss of 500 million francs. And while the group hoped to finally settle its costly setbacks resulting from the subprime crisis and conflict on the banking secrecy with the United States. He had announced in August a new savings plan that provides 3,500 job cuts and savings of 2 billion Swiss francs (1.8 billion euros). And he was preparing, according to the Swiss press, cutting heavily in its investment bank.

A Société Générale scandal happened in the subprime crisis, while the bank was about to announce 2.6 billion loss because of its exposure. The bank then red and black then launched a capital increase of EUR 5.5 billion, and managed to save many takeover rumors that hovered above his head.

Banks that do not listen to warnings

The many similarities between the two cases raise questions about banks' ability to truly control their traders. Yet they have spared no efforts in security after the Kerviel affair. "For the Societe Generale, one can even the number in the hundreds of millions of euros," said the Liboux and Tangi, an analyst at Aurel BGC. This did not prevent the inspection bodies to point out the dangers of risky products.The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) British recalled at the outbreak of the UBS case, have warned against the dangers inherent in the ETF. According to the Office of fight against financial crime in the UK, the risk of major accidents was high mainly because of their lack of transparency. But this is not a systemic problem as Manoj Ladwa, an analyst at ETX Capital in London. Those responsible for risk control at UBS "did not realize quite quickly that this trader had taken huge positions in a very short period." The problem, according to Frederic Boulier, an expert on financial fraud in Nice Actimize is that banks are primarily focused on the safety of other financial products."It is true that as these traders are working on relatively simple products, some banks have chosen to focus their efforts on control tables are traded market where more complex products." From there to imagine that a fraud on banks ETF splash soon again? "It is impossible to say today that a similar accident could not happen again one day," said Liboux The Tangi, an analyst at Aurel BGC.

The lack of recovery in the housing market prevents the activity really leave the United States. Explanations of a slump that may well last for …

One day, the U.S. housing market will leave … But the time has not yet come. To 1000 households, is now under construction 5 units, a record of weakness, experts comment Oddo Securities. The problem with this market? The fall in prices continues, fueled by the liquidation of foreclosed homes. In a speech on September 1, Elizabeth Duke, member of the Fed Board, recalled a few orders of magnitude: 25% of vacant houses for sale come from seizures, about one million properties will swell the stock of houses seized in 2011 in 2012 and 2013, 40% of home sales are forced sales. Under these conditions, a recovery is impossible.

Especially since some seizures – suspected illegal – are investigated.The Central Bank of the United States (Fed) announced that it planned to impose a fine on the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs for "malpractice" of its subsidiary, Litton Loan Servicing. Defuse this situation will take months, at least. But without rebound in real estate – and experts are adamant on this point – the growth prospects remain poor across the Atlantic. Aware of the problem, the authorities are considering new ways (supports tax failed to stem the crisis). Ms. Duke evokes such a large transfer program to sell foreclosed homes on the rental market. Meanwhile, the signs "For Sale" continue to flourish across the United States.

More will be expected to declare Greece in default of payment, as long as investors, mostly refrain from even considering to buy Greek assets.

The second aid plan for Greece, whose pregnancy is at best difficult, is considered as a way to save time for banks in the euro area can be provisioned for losses and contagion to save economies in the bloc.

As for the reforms demanded in exchange for this aid, they will not go down with a high population rise.

"We will buy if the economy manages to reform itself and if the banking system self-financing but do not count, at least in the next five years," said Russell Silberston (Investec Asset Management)."In our view, it is also that there is a fault before it."

The Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters on Monday that he intended to return to Greece on the market in mid-2014.

The vast majority of investors do not believe it possible without a major restructuring that makes the debt manageable and avoids multiply the austerity measures affecting the economic recovery.

"For Greece, the only solution is to start from scratch," said Kommer van Trigt (Robeco Group).

Silberston for a "first failure" is hatching, even though the French proposal for debt restructuring Greek seems to rally a lot of support, but it seems to solve the solvency problem of Greece.

"The big problem …"

To the extent that the debt should reach 1.6 times the GDP this year, Greece would have released a primary budget surplus of about 5% of GDP, say economists, while in 2010 it experienced a primary deficit of the same order, just to stabilize debt at current levels.

Assuming that the ratio of debt to GDP rises to 166%, calculations show that Evolution Securities should be a discount of about 64% to bring the report to 60% under the Maastricht Treaty.

The yield curve yields the Greek debt implies a discount of 50% on average, according to UniCredit.But impose losses on holders of sovereign bonds Greek before returning credibility may be a sword in the water.

"The big problem … a big discount is that you still give a very high premium for those who purchase the Greek debt after that because a discount was not enough, usually," said Jack Kelly (Standard Life Investments).

An immediate failure was avoided by an agreement to release a new tranche of aid of 12 billion euros, with the fiscal austerity measures, which had the effect of tumbling more than 200 basis points yields of some of the Greek bonds.

However, 27% on two years and 16% over the 10 years they are still prohibitive.The rally of Greek bonds were looked after by investors in the short term and its extent has been exaggerated by low volumes.

Kelly points out for example that the insurer Standard Life, which sold its last holdings in Greek bond in June 2010, no buyer would return only if the Greek debt recovered status of investment or if it was integrated into a common debt to the Union European solution that Berlin does not.

Ireland and Portugal, other countries bailed out in the euro area, are also banned from the portfolios of long-term investors because of the risk of being drawn into the vortex of the crisis in Greece.Risk materialized Tuesday by the downgrading of debt Portuguese four notches by Moody's.

However both countries have a chance to fix the situation faster than Greece, and especially Ireland, more competitive exports and labor market more flexible.

"Right now, we do not really differentiate between Greece, Ireland and Portugal.Subsequently, a country like Ireland seems better party, "said Van Trigt.

"HOT MONEY"

The timing and magnitude of a discount debt remaining two unknowns basic Greek, it is difficult to assess at what price investors would return to Greece.

Was used for comparison to the debt restructuring of Uruguay in 2003, which saw the price of its 2012 loan up to forty cents to 60 cents on the dollar just after.

Currently, the loan in June 2020 in Greece is trading at 55 cent per euro.

"At a price of less than 50, we find at one time or another value in bonds to eight or nine years," said Ciaran O'Hagan (Societe Generale)."But only when we have cleaned up the accounts, such a restructuring."

All this only works if Greece prevents unilateral and disorderly default like Argentina in 2002. She had organized large debt swaps in 2005 and 2010 but the market remains closed.

The "pricing" of the market, before any discount, could be an opportunity to buy based on the assumption that the Greek debt holders would have been too pessimistic about the extent of the said discount.This would not help at all Greece for those who would buy would emerge immediately after the relevant transactions and would not be very important.

"It would be the 'hot money' incredible," said Robert Talbut (Royal London Asset Management), adding that he would not take such a risk.

Greece faces severe limitations of its sovereignty and to privatize as much as was done for firms to East Germany in the 1990s after the fall of communism, said President of the Eurogroup Jean -Claude Juncker.

In an interview published the day after acceptance by the Eurogroup (the finance minister in the euro area) the release of a tranche of aid of 12 billion euros for Greece, Jean-Claude Juncker said that He is confident that the measures agreed with Athens will help to solve the country's problems.

"The sovereignty of Greece will be greatly restricted," said he in German magazine Focus, in an interview published Sunday, adding that teams of experts from throughout the euro area would travel to Greece.

"For the coming wave of privatization, they (the Greeks) will, for example, a solution that is based on the model of the 'Treuhand' German ', Juncker said, referring to the agency that had sold 14,000 firms East Germany from 1990 to 1994.

The Greek Parliament voted Thursday to create a privatization agency under an austerity program agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which led to violent demonstrations in the streets of Athens.

The Greeks are very sensitive to any interference in their business or to any idea of ​​running the country by "commissioners" foreigners."It is unacceptable to insult the Greeks, but they need help, they said they were willing to accept the expertise of the euro area," observes Jean-Claude Juncker, also Prime Minister of Luxembourg.

Wage increase of 106.6%

Greece must sell this year alone for five billion euros of public assets or it may miss the targets set in the program agreed with the EU and the IMF.

A new experience Treuhand might be bitter for the Greeks, who already suffer from high unemployment in the context of a recession that has lasted three years.

The Treuhand was supposed to sell public assets at a profit, but it closed its books on a huge deficit of 270 billion marks ($ 172 billion, 118.4 billion euros), a very unpleasant memory for thousands of Germans who lost their jobs.

Four million Germans were company employees spent in the lap of the Treuhand in 1990.Only 1.5 million jobs remain when the agency closed in 1994.

Juncker suggested the idea of ​​a Treuhand in Greece in May and had said that he believed Greece could raise far more than EUR 50 billion by privatizing.

"The package of measures agreed that Athens will provide a solution to the Greek question," he said, adding that the Greek tax system "is not fully functional."

Jean-Claude Juncker, Greece is in large part responsible for its crisis. "From 1999 to 2010, wages increased by 106.6%, while the economy grew at different rates.Incomes policy was totally out of control and not based in any of (gains) productivity. "

This austerity imposed on Greece is far from unanimous within the European Union. Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski and believes that too much emphasis on austerity and not enough on growth.

"It is clear that everyone has made mistakes in the past 18 months," he told reporters. "We were all overwhelmed.Greece must be the consolidation and growth, "he added, explaining that he had to deal with two members of the debt / GDP ratio and not just debt.

Poland Friday took the rotating presidency of the European Union for six months.

BERLIN Arrange

The Eurogroup also discussed Saturday the outline of a second aid package to Greece.The financial sector, through the voice of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), said he was ready to engage in an effort "voluntary, cooperative, transparent and wide" to support Greece, via a "rollover" of the Greek debt.

Michael Diekmann, the CEO of the German insurer Allianz, said in an interview to Spiegel, that he would commit to 300 million euros for Greece.

The German financial institutions, banks and insurers, had already announced Thursday that they would contribute up to 3.2 billion euros.

Christian Noyer, a member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB), said he is confident that Greece implements its program of austerity and rally in the second bank rescue plan.

"I'm optimistic because the plan which was submitted to make the rescue of Greece more credible," he told the weekly Greek Proto Thema, referring to the French proposal to "rollover" of the Greek debt.

"Almost all banks and other financial entities that could participate in the bailout of Greece would benefit," added he, again excluding any restructuring of the Greek debt.

As for the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, he said to Spiegel that Berlin is taking steps in the event of a failure to Greece even if the government does not believe in such a case.

Baroin, Bruno Le Maire and Valerie Pécresse compete for the portfolio of the economy. Arbitration should be made after the Council of Ministers on Wednesday. The Economy Minister Christine Lagarde and Budget Minister Baroin presented Wednesday, Sept. 29 at Bercy the draft budget law in 2011.

Nicolas Sarkozy and François Fillon began work Tuesday night at cabinet reshuffle made necessary by the appointment of Christine Lagarde at the IMF, a complicated task in the view of some officials of the UMP, which will delay the announcement until Wednesday.

Tuesday night, the two heads of the executive have kept about twenty minutes, shortly after the announcement from Washington of the appointment of Christine Lagarde to succeed Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the International Monetary Fund. This announcement heralded an imminent reshuffle. But, tired, at 9:15 p.m., this perspective has moved away.

The Elysee Palace announced that Christine Lagarde attend the Council of Ministers the following day. In all likelihood, the announcement of the reshuffle should take place after the weekly meeting with the government's head of state, and before leaving in the evening Mr Fillon in Cambodia and Indonesia.

According to several officials and members of the UMP contacted by AFP, the delay caused by fierce competition for the post of Economy and Finance between Baroin Lagarde, Minister of Budget and spokesman for the government, and colleague of Agriculture, Bruno Le Maire.

Both ministers have claimed, according to these sources, the prestigious position of Mme Lagarde and key at this time of the French Presidency of the G8 and G20, and threatened, and the other one, to resign if they did not successful.

Both heirs of Jacques Chirac, they had, until recently, as the "Musketeers" with the Secretary General of the UMP Jean-Francois Cope, and the leader of the UMP, Christian Jacob.

In addition to those of MM. Baroin and Le Maire, the name of Valerie Pécresse, Minister of Higher Education and Research, was also named to succeed Ms. Lagarde. But when she was the favorite until last weekend, Ms. Pécresse suffered, according to a source close to the government, a strong barrage of François Fillon.

Bruno Le Maire, who seemed to write off Bercy due to agricultural crisis and reform the common agricultural policy to manage, then tried his luck, according to a UMP. Until Tuesday morning, the Minister of Agriculture seemed to hold the rope. But in the day, Baroin regained the lead.

At ten months of the presidential election, the head of state could also benefit from this remodeling imposed to bring the centrist government, the attempts to disrupt the presidential nomination of his former minister for Ecology Jean-Louis Borloo. Among the candidates mentioned included the Secretary General of the UMP and Marc-Philippe Daubresse UMP vice president of the National Assembly Laffineur Marc, a former UDF as well.

The Veterans Affairs has been vacant since the redesign of November, and Georges Tron has not been replaced with that of the Public Service since his resignation on May 29 after it was involved in an investigation for sexual assault and rape.

Ministers candidates for Senate in September, Gerard Longuet (Defence), Chantal Jouanno (Sport) and Maurice Leroy (City), would not, themselves, affected by this redesign, according to a source close to the government.

The two main figures of the Belgian government of current affairs are to meet Monday with investors to encourage them not to put the country in the same category as members "peripheral" in the euro area.

Belgium is in a sort of between the two countries in the euro area, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal which have received international support and the six countries of the euro zone, led by Germany, receiving Note 'AAA', the best possible.

The country's debt represents just under 100% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and n 'is still no new government corresponding to the results of parliamentary elections held in June 2010.

Prime Minister Yves Leterme and Finance Minister Didier Reynders will then Sunday in London to showcase the country's finances to investors.

"We have to show the difference with other countries," said a spokesman for Leterme.

A source said it was essential that issuers forged close ties with investors in the current market conditions, marked by high volatility.

Belgium anticipates a GDP growth of 2.6% this year, well above the average retention for the euro area as a whole, which varies between 1.5% and 2.3%, according to figures from the bank Central Belgium.

In addition to fears of contagion from a defect in Greek throughout the euro area, the cost of borrowing for Belgium has increased because of questions about the country's debt, which is expected to be 96 , 1% of GDP at end 2011, according to the Belgian central bank.

The yield spread between sovereign debt Belgian 10-year German Bunds and equivalent – reference in the bond market – rose to almost 150 basis points in November, its highest since the inception of the euro area.

Since it fell below 130 basis points and the spread remains significantly lower than that between Bunds and debt securities Italian and Spanish.

Fitch and Standard & Poor's both said they may downgrade the rating of AA + from Belgium if there was no establishment of a full government better able to them to achieve the deficit reduction targets.

S & P, however, said last month that he could not decide anything in this field by the end of next year.

After a very dynamic first quarter, the French economy is expected to mark time before rebounding and reaching 2.1% over the year, exceeding the government's objective, according to INSEE. French managers come to the business district of La Défense

French growth should undergo a brake in the second quarter before rebounding and reaching 2.1% over the year, slightly more than the government's objective, according to new estimates published by INSEE on Thursday. After a very dynamic first quarter in which gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1%, the French economy would have stalled, says the National Institute of Statistics in its first forecast for the whole of the 2011.

As in other advanced economies, France has experienced the full number of shocks, such as rising commodity prices, the consequences of the earthquake in Japan, or more restrictive economic policies. However, these shocks will be "temporary" said Sandrine Duchêne, head of the economic situation of INSEE. And factors should slow fade in the second half.

After an expected growth of only 0.2% in the second quarter, activity should then bounce back with an expected GDP growth of 0.5% during the last two quarters of the year. Over the whole of 2011, growth would reach 2.1%, slightly higher than the official government forecast (2%).

This performance is consistent with the euro area average. As usual, Germany will remain the locomotive of the region, INSEE provides a 3.7% growth for the country in 2011.Conversely, Spain (+0.7%) and Italy (+0.8%) will be left behind.

Unemployment folds

Over the period, the labor market should continue to improve in France, total employment grew more strongly than in 2010. Unemployment, which stood at 9.2% of the workforce in the first quarter, fell back slightly by the end of the year to 9%.

Household consumption, even in the first quarter supported by a "drag effect" of scrapping, related to the timely delivery of vehicles ordered in late 2010, should fall back sharply in the second quarter, "backlash". She then rebound in the second half, however, at a rate slightly lower than before the crisis, according to Insee.

Traditional engine of French growth, consumption would increase by 1.2% over the year, after rising 1.3% in 2010.Business investment will remain dynamic, while the trade would have a broadly neutral impact on growth.

Household income would be supported by rising employment and wages. The decision to pay a premium to employees in companies distributing dividends is expected to contribute to this increase, according to INSEE.

Inflation of 2.2% trim on the purchasing power

But this acceleration will be partially eroded by the pursuit of expected inflation. To INSEE, the rise in food prices, already substantially since March, is expected to continue in effect until December. On average, inflation should be 2.2% throughout this year, a level higher than the 1.8% forecast by the government.

Thus, household disposable income, which should accelerate in 2011 (+3.3% after +2.0%), would contreblancé by higher inflation.Overall, the purchasing power of households rise by only slightly faster in 2011 than in 2010 (1% after +0.8%).

A greater than expected weakness in the U.S. economy or boost pressure on sovereign debt, however, could darken the picture, warns INSEE. Conversely, if the French households decide to save less this year, would benefit just the consumer, so to growth.

Total announced Tuesday the signing of an agreement for the sale to a consortium of most of its petroleum distribution assets in the UK, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.

The French oil company said in a statement that it would yield to Rontec Investments LLP network of service stations in the UK, or 810 points of sale, the distributor of heating oil Total Butler, logistics infrastructure and all associated activities in the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.

A spokesman for the group said the amount of the transaction was 400 million pounds (450 million).

The consortium includes Rontec Investments LLP Snax 24, a leading British groups independent of the fuel distribution, the investment company London GrovePointe and Investec, a specialist international bank for investment and asset management.

The operation must be completed by the end of 2011.

The sales process of refining of Total UK is also continuing, Total said in a statement.

The chief strategy of the French company, Jean-Jacques Mosconi told Reuters on June 14 that Total was still in exclusive talks to sell its refinery Lindsey UK, where he announced the sale as imminent for almost a year .

In addition to exploration and production, the French group remains on the UK market through its activities in lubricants, aviation fuels, specialty fluids and chemicals.

Title Total closed up 2.15% to 38.875 euros.