7 Aug
Rise in German industrial production in the second quarter and modest growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of Italy: Several economic indicators released Friday reflect a context of sustained recovery, but mixed in the euro area.
The Bank of Spain has highlighted the differences between the major European economies, strong, and other countries, further behind, like Spain itself, which experienced the second quarter increased 0.2 % only.
Economists believe that the country can hardly do better this year and many of them predict a relapse into recession in the second half, partly because of the negative impact of the austerity measures implemented everywhere in Europe.
The Italian economy grew by 0.4% in the quarter April to June, so less than the 0.7% growth expected for the entire euro area.
"A growth of 0.4% is nearly in the standard, but after the extraordinary decline in GDP during the recession, it shows that the recovery will be slow," said Giada Giani, Citigroup.
German industrial production was registered against all odds down in June but the strong increase in April and May it can display an increase of 5.4% over the entire second quarter, its best performance since the reunification German in 1990.
"The slight decline in industrial production in June should not overshadow an early resumption of the industry, which will likely cause a sharp rise in GDP in the second quarter," said Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics, which provides for 1.2% growth for the largest economy in the euro area.
The growth figures in Germany, France and the eurozone will be published Friday.
On Thursday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet, had already welcomed a number of statistics generally reassuring for the economies of the area.
These figures explain the contrast between the confident tone being employed by the ECB and one selected by the U.S. Federal Reserve, more uncertain and fuels speculation about the possibility of a further easing of monetary policy.
PROBABLE SLOWDOWN
In this context, Jean-Claude Trichet said growth anticipated "exceptional" for the countries of the eurozone in the second quarter, and added subsequently to expect a slowdown.
The employment statistics in the United States have confirmed the continued fragility of the labor market, announced the job cuts have been twice as many expected.
The publication Friday of France's trade deficit also shows how the Chinese economy has become the main engine of the global economy at the expense of the United States.Indeed, the trade deficit of France fell more than expected in June, exports reached their highest level in nearly two years, thanks to strong trade to China.
The European Union (EU) has been gradually ebb in recent weeks the fear of a sovereign debt crisis of great magnitude, which enabled Greece, Spain and Portugal to borrow again successfully bond markets.
Contracts were then reassured by the results of resistance tests imposed European banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the EU welcomed efforts deemed conclusive of Greece to control its deficit abyss.
However, despite this reassuring news, many economists, as well as the ECB, expect a weakening in the current year, which will concern not just Spain.
"More and more are signs of a slowdown in momentum towards the end of the year. The major indicators suggest that the global economy loses speed," said Alexander Koch of Unicredit.
While the threat of a relapse of the European economy seems to fade, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Friday that the composite leading indicators for June indicate a peak in the expansion.